Breeder's Cup Handicapping Begins Today!

After a summer long, seemingly endless, discussion of who is the best horse in North America, the real handicapping expedition begins today as the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita opens on their brand new Pro-Ride surface.

Today's Grade 3 Morvich Handicap will send one lucky turf sprinter directly into the Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint. On Saturday, there are SIX Grade 1 races, five with automatic berths to the Breeder's Cup.

I am a big believer in synthetic surfaces being specific and unique to a horse, in much the same way you would not expect most Grade 1 turf horses to compete at the same level on the dirt. I've watched more than my fair share of synthetic races at Woodbine and can confirm that many horses suddenly spiked in ability after installation of polytrack. Harlem Rocker was so put off by his failed warm up race on polytrack that he did not enter the Queen's Plate at Woodbine and instead beat all the main competition from that race quite handily on the dirt at Fort Erie in the Prince of Wales stakes. *One caveat, Queen's Plate winner Not Bourbon needed throat surgery following the PoW, so a Canadian match race might be needed to determine dominance.

So, for the next month, handicappers can enjoy a free one-month tutorial on what to expect on the brand new Pro-Ride track at Santa Anita. Will speed carry at distance? Are inside posts an advantage? How do closers take to the new surface? If a string of front-runners win consistently, it would certainly appear to favour Big Brown (or Commentator?), over the late running Curlin should they meet in the Classic.

Let's not forget, that there are a few other good horses in North America at the moment.
Remember this race?

Not to mention, another horse who seems to win on the west coast.


Maybe we don't need a month to sort out the intricacies of Santa Anita's new track, but I know that I'll be keeping a close eye on the meet over the coming weeks as I look for a pattern to use to bet against Big Brown AND Curlin in the Classic. There's no guarantee that either horse will take to the surface and this Saturday's $500,000 Goodwood might provide an unsuspecting challenger with proven form on the new surface.