Handicapping Hindsight - Odds Do Not Make A Winner

Sunday's card at Santa Anita featured a great example of unintentional handicapping basics courtesy of the Daily Racing Form's Steve Klein.

The night before handicapping, when possible, I will read the advance Form as I find it helps me focus the next day. While reading, I highlight bullet works and circle race comments mentioning impeded stretch runs or poor starts. In addition, I also read through the various columns in the Form to get an "insider" perspective. Klein's column stuck with me as it seemed to point out a great opportunity to make money in the G2 San Gabriel Handicap by tossing out pre-race favourites Proudinsky and Ferneley.



It is not my intention to point a finger at Mr. Klein. My own limited strength as a handicapper is in identifying class and narrowing a field down to a few possibilities. My weaknesses are many, and certainly not limited to:

- Paying too much attention to Beyer rating.
- Avoiding certain jockeys/trainers.
- Wagering based on diminishing funds of my HPI Account.
- Reluctance to wager on any horse with odds higher than 8-1.
- Reluctance to wager on any horse with odds of even money or lower.

I will spare you further details.

I had an up and down Sunday nailing a useless $1 Pick 3 (Proud Garrison, Princeandrew and Gato Go Win) to start that paid a miserly $10.70. Over the course of the next few races, I quickly diminished my modest funds and had no choice but to go for broke in the San Gabriel Handicap.

With Klein's column ringing in my ear, I glossed over the form of Ferneley and Proudinsky to focus on finding someone to beat the horse that finished second to Big Brown at Monmouth earlier this year.



Klein favoured Becrux, who I watched disappoint at the Woodbine Mile, and another horse by the name of Medici Code that I knew little about. Becrux certainly had improving form, including an impressive finish in the Citation Handicap. However, Proudinsky also finished well in the Citation despite Jose Valdivia Jr. losing his whip.



My head was spinning through exactor combinations:

- Becrux over Medici Code and Proudinksy?
- Becrux over Medici Code and Ferneley?
- Can I ignore the impressive local form of Swift Winds?
- Is Porfido, on a five month layoff, as ready as trainer Bobby Frankel claims?

With less than two minutes to post, it dawned on me that I was making a huge handicapping mistake. After a day of lacklustre results, I was reaching for a winner to make some money back.

I re-read Klein's column and plucked out two gems:

"...only two of the nine horses in the race own a single graded or group stakes victory this year."

AND

"So does that mean we can ignore the rest of the field and box Proudinsky and Ferneley in the exacta?"

Yes, we can. In fact, I decided Proudinsky was much the best and simply used him on top of Ferneley.

The race was far from easy as Porfido led the group to the top of the stretch before a struggle ensued between Proudinsky and Ferneley. At the eighth pole, Ferneley edged in front and I momentarily regretted not boxing the combination. However, Rafael Bejerano scrubbed hard on Proudinsky and came back on to win by three-quarters of a length. Ferneley was a game second with Medici Code finishing third. Those that backed Becrux will no doubt point to lack of racing room in the stretch, though I don't think his run would have merited the win.

Proudinsky paid just $4.60 to win, but the $2 exactor was worth a generous $31.60 and helped put me back above even for the day.

Lesson re-learned: when looking for a good winner, it's best to just take the obvious winner and let the payouts sort themselves out.