Friday, March 6, 2009

Handicapping Challenge: The Revenge of Boule d'Or

Since December of 2008, I have been following the career path of the eight year-old gelding Boule d'Or and using his races as a reason to wager and donate any winnings to the Long Run Thoroughbred Retirement Society. In the event there are no winnings, I chip in $20. So far, I've mailed out $40 to Long Run and I owe them a further $20 from the recent debacle when Boule d'Or lacked running room down the lane while keyed on top of my exactor and I watched in anger as the horse I used underneath stole the race creating a sweet double in the process.

I would like to challenge anyone reading to join me in the challenge and see if they can raise some money for the horse retirement organization of their choice. I'll be wagering through HorsePlayer Interactive.
Those of you that are not Woodbine locals, may wish to donate your winnings to these U.S based organizations:

Canter USA
Old Friends Equine
Remember Me Rescue
Equine Advocates

Boule d'Or was claimed out of that recent effort by top trainer Doug O'Neill from trainer Jeff Mullins and Bone Johnson. O'Neill is the geldings fourth conditioner since January of 2008. Check out Boule d'Ors nifty $597,061 lifetime earnings, which include a GII win on the turf last year at Santa Anita. Also impressive is being in the money 30 times in 57 career starts. This is a horse with much class, but perhaps slowing down as he ages. (Don't we all.)



Boule d'Or is competing in the eighth race at Santa Anita this afternoon which is the final leg of the late Pick 4 and includes Super High Five wagering. Given the difficult nature of handicapping a $12,500 claimer with ten entrants of varied talents, I'll be sticking to exactor wagering.

Here are the entrants:


1. Archon Star
A closer which fits well with this pace loaded race but he appears to be a little slow for this group. Makes just his third start off the grass, the home of his lone win. Most recent race was decent after a two year layoff, but I'm looking elsewhere.

2. South Coast - HAS BEEN SCRATCHED.
Talamo sticks with South Coast who is dropping in from a $40K claimer and a string of five 80+ Beyers. Normally on or near the lead, I can see a stalking trip take this one to the wire in front.

3. Bullya
One of two entrants here for trainer Doug O'Neill and another who likes to be on the lead. Nipped at the wire in his latest going seven furlongs, I can see him being caught this afternoon because of the contested pace. Bobbled at the start in his latest and did work out well going 4F in 47.1 on Feb 26th. Will consider underneath.


4. Brave Sun
Long shot closer has faced many of these previously and did beat Gary's Got Rhythm last November at this distance. At 20-1, I like the potential of arriving late on this quick field.

5. Twin Turbo
Jockey Rafael Bejerano gives this one a chance coming back after a stirring New Year's Eve tilt going last to first to win by a nose. Beyer figures are a little slow but the workouts show he's ready. Meh.

6. Kalookan Event - SCRATCHED

7. Tox Dee Bee
This sneaky entrant is going from a sprint to a route having never travelled further than 7F lifetime. He's quick closing at six furlongs but can he stretch out? I'm digging the 15-1ML odds.

8. Dadsalittleunusual
Hot trainer Mike Mitchell winning at a .26 clip (20 for 77) combines with leading jockey Garret Gomez on the likely favourite in this event. Dropping in from a $20K claimer, this is exactly the sort of horse I usually throw out. - a favourite that's 4 for 30 lifetime. Underneath, maybe.

9. Boule d'Or
Also trained by O'Neill, the hero of this blog has watched his speed figures drop significantly after traffic troubles in his two latest efforts. Not sure if I'm blinded by favouritism here, but the back class is too much for me to ignore. A better trip puts this one on or near the top.

10. Gary's Got Rhythm
Trainer Jack Carava has an impressive .22 win percentage (66-14-13-8) thus far in the meet and this one looked impressive in latest closing wide to miss by a length keeping Boule d'Or behind him. Another one that's tough to throw out.

11. Matuco (ARG)
Dropping in from $20K for Gary Stute, this Argentinian bred has 2 wins in 20 lifetime starts. Inconsistent form against a tough group makes me look elsewhere.

I'll check back in later in the day to see if there are any changes and hopefully a sneak peak at the post parade if time permits. For the moment it's looking like I will be wagering as follows:

Exactor boxing Boule d'Or and South Coast with Brave Sun and Tox Dee Bee underneath. (2-9 over 2-3-7-9)

**UPDATE!! 5:14PM EST**
South Coast has been scratched eliminating my stalking choice and opening up a hole for Dadsalittleunusual. I'm going to toss out Brave Sun but keep Tox Dee Bee underneath.

Final wager: $4 Exactor of 8-9 over 7-8-9. Total cost $16.
Proceeds to be donated to Long Run. If I fail (again), I'll drop another $20 off instead.

Good luck everyone. If you're playing along, please leave a comment with your picks. Now it's time to think about that late Pick 4...

**FINAL UPDATE!!8:15PM EST**

Yet another piss-poor public display of half an exactor "wins" $20 for the Long Run Thoroughbred Retirement Society. Boule d'Or got out of the gate sluggishly and ran four wide into the first turn from last position. If you're going to be last to the turn, at least make the rail.

Meanwhile at the front end, 30-1 shot Matuco sped to 3/4 with Bullya in tow in a sluggish 1:12.84. It all set up quite nicely for Dadsalittleunusual who stalked through the turn and held in the stretch to win by a length. Boule d'Or raced wide down the backstretch and was within five lenghts at the top of the stretch, but running five wide. To say I was unimpressed is an understatement. It may be time for me to realize that the tactical speed of the eight year-old is not what it was at this point last year. Twin Turbo was up for place with Bull Ya staying strong for show. Boule d'Or finished fourth with my longshot underneath horse, Tox Dee Bee, never firing.

Dadsalittleunusual paid $6.40 to win and the 8-5 exactor paid $15.60 for a buck.

Boule d'Or was claimed AGAIN, this time by trainer Justin Treasure for owner Robert Gray.

Sorry kids, I'll get 'em next time!

Tomorrow I'm off to the Woodbine training track at 6:45AM to snap some photos for a story in Down The Stretch newspaper. Can't wait!

No comments: