Kentucky Derby Exotic Picks - From Tiers to Tears

With the disappointing news that I Want Revenge has been scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to lameness in his front ankle, the Derby wagering picture has become less expensive. I went to bed last night dreaming of a stretch duel between I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire, and now I am wide awake wondering who will make up the exactor as nothing but a bad trip can stop Friesan Fire now.

What follows is my exotics picture in tiers of Win, Place and Show. After the Derby I'll follow-up this post about tiers with my own tears on the race that was.

WIN
6. Friesan Fire - Three graded wins on the trot. An outstanding workout of 5F in 57/4 and the A.P.Indy colt has the breeding to bridge the gap between his 1/16M victories to the classic 1 1/4M. The jockey has been here before and trainer Larry Jones has been prepping the colt for seven weeks. Hard to look elsewhere.

PLACE

10/19.TEAM GODOLPHIN - Regal Ransom backers were given good reason to cheer when lightning fast Quality Road was forced out of the Derby due to injury. With only Join In The Dance left to burn the early fractions, Regal Ransom can stalk and make one sustained move. On the other hand, Desert Party was LAZY in the UAE Derby and shocked his Godolphin team when he could not pass Regal Ransom in the stretch. Desert Party can handle an off track, he's beaten Regal Ransom twice and avenged his G1 defeat to Vineyard Haven in the UAE 2000 Guineas.

15. Dunkirk - I hate the 4-1 odds for a horse that's won an allowance and made excuses in the Florida Derby. However, $3.7M buys a certain amount of breeding and the increasing Beyer figures of 77,98 and 108 suggest that this one can climb a little higher.

SHOW

4. Advice - Huge gain in the Lexington closing from 11th to win going away in a difficult trip. I like the running style and there's something to say about overcoming the odds to win a race. 30-1 certainly helps.

5. Hold Me Back - Slow early fractions in the Bluegrass hurt the son of Giant's Causeway yet still closed willingly out wide. Kent Desormeaux knows how to win a Kentucky Derby and the breeding is there.

11. Chocolate Candy - A very good friend of mine who knows a little about handicapping thinks Mike Smith can win another Derby. If you saw the bottom line on my friend's wagering account statement you'd understand why I'm including this one. Good enough for me. Plus, a 94 Beyer off a layoff going a 1 1/8M? Not too shabby.

17. Summer Bird - Dunkirk backers point at increasing Beyer figures. At 50-1, Summer Bird has increasing Beyer figures of 65, 78 and 99. That last figure comes at 1 1/8M in the Arkansas Derby where Summer Bird started slow and then closed 15 lengths to finish third behind Papa Clem and Old Fashioned.

Best of luck to all you punters out there today. Let's get 'em all home safe.