Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Weekend Wrapup - Outrageous Odds, The Watchlist and $500 Exactors

Recently, a hectic travel schedule including a soujourn to Belmont has kept Triple Dead Heat from the weekly task of monitoring the Woodbine Watch List and Outrageous Odds.

As part of an ongoing experiment, the Woodbine Watch List tracks horses who raced their way into trouble at Woodbine but showed some gumption despite the adversity. I've been compiling the adventures of these unlucky horses and following their future results to see if the altercation is a sign of delayed success.

Recent success includes Dick Whittington who scored second time out at Fort Erie. Dick Whittington was closing well following a slow start on April 4th to finish third at the $10K claiming level. First time back to the track after that event, the horse doubled up in class and finished a well-beaten sixth. In his most recent start, Dick Whittington was dropped back into a winnable claiming spot and responded to win by a head for jockey and Tweeter Melanie Pinto.

Montrose Avenue is a horse who might follow this path to success in Wednesday night's fifth race. Montrose Avenue made the Watch List on April 12th after recovering from a horrendous start to gallop out well in a five furlong affair. Montrose Avenue raced again on April 26th finishing second to a 40-1 bomb and subsequently tried racing on the lead May 16th to finish third. On Wednesday night, trainer Nick Gonzalez has entered Montrose Avenue into a 6 1/2 furlong race and switched to jockey Chantal Sutherland. I expect the added distance should result in success.

This week's addition to the Watch List is Firestone Farms' Witch's Coven. On Saturday June 6th, Witch's Coven started slow, was steadied and then charged six-wide through the stretch to finish third. The race featured ten fillies travelling just 4 1/2 furlongs in a $69K MSW. Clearly this race will serve as an excellent learning experience for the young filly. Expect trainer David Bell to have Witch's Coven brewing up trouble in her next start. I'll post a notification on this site to remind regular readers.

Triple Dead Heat's other weekly feature, Outrageous Odds, details the story of one of the more lucrative payouts of the past week. This week's outrageous story is one that cost me a few dollars. In Sunday's eighth race, I was well pleased with myself for finding value in 8-1 shot Go Juice. Jockey Tyler Pizarro was having a fine day, already having scored a Stakes victory with Woodsmoke, and his mount was clearly being overlooked in this event by a mostly newbie Woodbine Oaks crowd. Having decided to toss out the lukewarm favourite, Tomahawk Sister, I instead looked at the pairing of Moonlit Beauty and Chantal Sutherland. (Surely these two are due a Wednesday night score.) With post-time minutes away and somewhat distracted by my photography duties, I boxed the pair in a neat little exactor.

The race featured fourteen fillies and mares travelling 6 1/2F on the polytrack and the race went kaput from the opening bell with all sorts of bumps and breaks. Somehow, Steve Bahen squeezed Lucky N' Bold through the mess to make the lead travelling relatively quick fractions of 22.69 and 46.00 for a group of $69K MSW. Patrick Husbands and Saforica chased the leader with Chantal and Moonlit Beauty content to stalk from fifth position. My value pick was sitting ninth at the half with Megavella and Constant Montpelier just outside them in twelth.
As the group approached the turn, Pizarro made a stunning rail move and drove to the lead. Sutherland and Moonlit Beauty chased after Go Juice and finally squeezed in front deep in the lane. What a win! Megavella, at odds of 55-1, charged up the rail to nip a fading Lucky N' Bold for third. I was ecstatic, 4-1 over 8-1 would be a nifty exactor and I headed off to the paddock to commence picture duties for the Oaks.

Little did I know, as I was snapping shots of Joe Talamo and Stewart Elliot, the stewards were busy reviewing footage of the start. Coming out of the gate, Moonlit Beauty broke outward and bumped 45-1 shot Moonlight Mile off her feet effectively ending her race. It was 'good night nurse' for my ticket that could have been. With Moonlit Beauty disqualified and placed last, Megavella (55-1) moved into the exactor spot to combine with my value pick of Go Juice (8-1) for a Mega-Juicy exactor worth $511.80. Ouch. The triactor with Lucky N' Bold (5-1) paid $2,298.20 and the Superfecta delivered a whopping $22,028.45 for your dollar.

Just goes to show that if you really like a horse, it's worth while to go a dollar up and down the board in exactors.

* * *

Patrick Husbands continues to run away with the lead in the Woodbine jockey standings with 56 wins. Chantal Sutherland's 35 wins is good for second place. Husbands has hit the board with 127 of his 225 mounts and is the model of consistency. I expect that veteran Jim McAleney will make a dent in Husbands lead as the summer moves on. The journeyman is making the most of his 166 mounts with 25 wins, 21 times placed and 29 turns helping a punter out in the show spot.



Nick Gonzalez is leading the local trainers with 14 wins from 67 starts. Mark Casse, Scott Fairlie and Malcolm Pierce are tied for second with 13 wins apiece. Fairlie scored huge this weekend when Milwaukee Appeal won the Woodbine Oaks as the conditioner made the nifty move of bringing in Stewart Elliot to secure the win. Malcolm Pierce and Mark Casse could square off in the Queen's Plate with El Brujo and Active Duty respectively.



I'll post again later this week with some interesting shopping finds including a 1946 Belmont Park program. (At least I'll be able to pick a winner from that book!)

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