Turf Handicapping On A Woodbine Wednesday Night

In Tuesday's post, I promised to handicap this evening's Passing Mood Stakes at Woodbine. I went to bed dreaming up Pick 3 scenarios, but after reviewing the Form earlier this morning I have been cursing my promise thanks to the difficulty of the card.

Don't get me wrong - this is an excellent card of racing but not one designed for my economical form of handicapping. After all, I'm the guy who wagered less than $20 on a Pick Six! Tonight may be a good night to simply watch the equine athletes perform.

With the threat of rain, both turf races may move to the polytrack which throws all handicapping into further disarray. For what it's worth, I'll post my thoughts on the night's two turf events.

The second race features a full fourteen horse field (with two more on the AE list)travelling a mile on the turf for a purse of $49,100. Designated for three year olds and upward which have never won two races, the field is a mash up of colts and geldings with limited turf experience. With odds ranging from 3-1 (Captain Mark - the morning line fave) to 30-1 (Prattle - a 6YO gelding) there is sure to be a HUGE triactor payoff if you can sort out the variables.

Here's a few comments on possible horses to include:

Golden Glade (4-1)- Jono Jones rides this 5YO gelding who went a little too quick on the front end last time out and was nailed at the wire. Jones is an expert at rating, as proved in his excellent ride aboard Musketier in the Man O' War. Perhaps a rider switch will make the difference tonight. Third start of the season may be cause for celebration. Note the improving speed figures.

Koenigsberg (6-1) Patrick Husbands leads all Woodbine jockeys with 11 wins in 63 starts on the turf. His horse, Koenigsberg, has a bad case of seconditis placing four times in eleven starts. Tonight marks the third start on Woodbine turf for this 4YO son of Danizg. The first attempt was a tough $77K Allowance event won by the excellent Reservoir. Next out, Koenigsberg tried a front end approach at a difficult 1 1/4M giving way late in the stretch. Tonight's shorter 1M distance may prove more suitable.

Easterman (15-1) Emile Ramsammy rides this 5YO gelding who makes his third start of 2009 following a two-year layoff. A son of Smart Strike, there is grass pedigree to respect. A recent work of 5F in 1:00.20 suggests this one is ready.

On Wings of Trust (20-1) - A potential ship-in bomber from Fort Erie. Trainer Julia Carey has a record of two wins in three turf events this meet. Last out, jockey Steve Bahen fought to the lead and the 3YO gelding held on to win by a neck going a mile on the turf at Fort Erie. This is a big jump up in class, but maybe this one sticks around for third if allowed to travel alone up front.

Captain Mark (3-1) - The likely favourite had a rough trip last out when blocked twice in the stretch in the same settings as tonight's race. Golden Glade finished in front of Captain Mark in that race. No reason to expect less traffic trouble in this full field, so I will let the lukewarm favourite beat me.

AE Cambridge Blue (12-1) - Brian Lynch owns and trains this 4YO gelding who arrives from California for his potential first start of the year. Lynch is a high-percentage trainer (36.4% win on turf/54.5% in the money on turf) in eleven turf starts this meet. A string of steady, if unspectacular, workouts show this one is being pointed to a full calendar of summer turf racing. IF Cambridge Blue gets in and IF there is a hot pace to run at, jockey David Clark may get his first turf win of the season.

PICKS:
1st - Golden Glade, Cambridge Blue (AE)
Underneath - All of the above.

The Passing Mood Stakes is for Ontario-Sired three year-old fillies, run at a distance of 7F on the turf course.

P# PP Jockey Wgt Trainer M/L
1 1 Cawaja Beach (ON) D J David 126 S H Fairlie 2/1
The undefeated heroine of the Shady Well, Nandi and Victorian Queen returns from injury for her first start of 2009. We know that she has beaten Sans Sousi, Koonunga Hill and Double Malt previously. We don't know if Cawaja Beach will handle the turf or the handicap of 126lbs first time out. Underrated jockey Daniel David returns which is a huge positive for the filly.


2 2 Executive Deed (ON) T Kabel 115 S C Attard 12/1

Todd Kabel is in the money on nearly 40% of turf starts. Trainer Sid Attard is in the money in 50% of his 20 turf starts, including six wins. The sire, Bold Executive, is 10% with turf debut starters. Last out, Executive Deed bombed to finish last in a 6 1/2F sprint won by Anne's Purse - Sans Sousi was second in that event. This horse has been beaten by many in this field previously and despite the above positives, it's a tall order.

3 3 Double Malt (ON) E R Da Silva 122 M Pierce 4/1
Double Malt is yet another first-time turfer who has faced many in this field before. Trainer Malcolm Pierce leads all Woodbine conditioners with seven turf wins this meet so he knows how to prepare a horse for such an event. Double Malt chased home a slow pace in the Bison City Stakes and should have plenty of speed to follow this evening. Three starts back in the La Lorgnette Stakes, Double Malt made up huge ground to finish fifth, beaten five lengths, in a field that included Hooh Why, Tasty Temptation and Milwaukee Appeal.

4 4 Lucky n' Bold (ON) S R Bahen 115 J P Le Blanc, Jr. 12/1
First time on the turf for this daughter of Bold n Flashy. The dam, Ocean Classic (Sky Classic), shows some potential for grass but this is a tough event. On the fringes.

5 5 Dancing Charm (ON) P Husbands 115 D Pleterski 10/1
Patrick Husbands rides this daughter of Dance To Destiny for the first time. The sire is a son of Mr. Prospector, out of Eclipse and Canadian champion Dance Smartly. Despite the dynamic turf potential, it's hard to overlook past performance lines detailing losses to both Sans Sousi and Double Malt.

6 6 Sans Sousi (ON) C Sutherland 122 M J Doyle 3/1
Chantal Sutherland rides for trainer Mike Doyle. Sans Sousi has been in the money in 10 of 12 starts with earnings of $265K. Three times, the daughter of Bold Executive has faced Cawaja Beach and all three times Cawaja Beach came away the victor. She has the benefit of four races under her belt coming into the race.

7 7 Koonunga Hill (ON) J C Jones 119 S Owens 6/1
Jono Jones aboard for trainer Steve Owens. Koonunga Hill has raced twice on turf with excellent results. The first turf try was a win in the 7F Ice Water Stakes. The second turf try was an excellent third place finish in the GIII Natalma Stakes won by C Karma over a soft turf course. There's a lot to like about this one - with the caveat that she has lost three starts to the undefeated Cawaja Beach.

IF this was on poly and IF this was the third start of the year for Cawaja Beach, I would happily key the Scott Fairlie filly in this event. However, that is simply not the case. As a fan of Cawaja Beach, I hope the filly airs but from a handicapping perspective you must look for a potential upset.

Box Cawaja Beach, Double Malt and Koonunga Hill in Exactors and Triactors.

Good luck to everybody (channeling my inner Eurico Rosa Da Silva) handiapping this evening's card. I will post photos from the Passing Mood States tomorrow afternoon.