Why The Form Makes For Better Reading Than Grisham

One of the great joys of life is picking up a brand new Daily Racing Form and trying to find a winner. The Form has that grimy, inky feeling that takes me back to when racetracks were dank monuments to the grift rather than the glitzy racinos they've become.

Properly absorbing the Form is a ritual that requires several readings, a black pen and hours of uninterrupted quiet time. Each page is filled with endless possibilities and hidden information that only the sharpest handicapper can uncover. For me, picking through a MSW at Aqueduct has more twists, turns and thrills than a John Grisham novel. The beauty is in the details and the intrigue hastens until the bitter end...and even when the hero makes his mark at the penultimate climax, I still read back through the pages to figure out how I couldn't see this one coming.

So, with that in mind, I thought it might be fun to take a walk back through an old copy of the Form and show you what stats and blurbs catch my eye. I'll post up a few entries from a race and see if the reader can hindsight handicap a race that I've narrowed down to just four choices.

If there's an angle you use yourself when handicapping, please post that comment post haste!

(Clippings courtesy of the January 10th Daily Racing Form...click image to enlarge.)

Behold, the Trainer Standings. When handicapping away from your home track, the lead page of each section of the Form contains a bounty of information. Before even looking at a race, you must check out the leading riders, track records and distance information. Did you know that Aqueduct's inner track is a perfect one mile oval? Below I've highlighted a startling .38 Win% for trainer Steve Asmussen which will factor into my day's handicapping.




Raffie's Deer - My pick in the second race at Aqueduct. The last outing highlights a furious charge from the back of the pack to narrowly miss by a length...and then highlighted over in the margin is the race note letting the handicapper know that Raffie was bumped at the break in his last outing. Oh, what could have been! Asmussen training, it's a lock!



Unfortunately for me, Little Wise Guy wins the second race paying $11.80 to win. Raffie's Deer again comes second to create a $28.60 exactor. Though the race notes of Little Wise Guy's last outing say "flattened out", the local handicapper points out in the margin notes that he actually broke poorly in his latest. What looks like a poor last outing is actually on closer inspection a very good race. LWG's 6F effort was in 1:10 flat, faster than Raffie's Deer effort...and you have to factor in that LWG's jockey decided to challenge the leaders after a poor beginning and understandably burned out down the lane.



Check out the charts for Wild Geese in Aqueduct's third race. Highlighted in the top right corner is the info that this gelding is an Aqueduct specialist with four wins in nine tries and almost always in the money. Directly to the right, hey, Wild Geese likes this distance as well. Even better, highlighted in the race charts is a return to jockey Dominguez who always gets great results with this gelding. Yeah, the last two Beyer ratings are poor but one was on a muddy track and the other race he was in over his head. Just Win baby!


(Wild Geese finished dead last.)

Well, I know what you're thinking. There's more to a race than one horse and his stats. Such as:

- is there a pace factor? is there lone speed?
- is there so much pace a closer is preferred?
- can the horse run on this surface?
- does post position give advantage at this distance?
- should i pay attention to Beyer figures?
- what do i do with a horse who's never raced at all?

And those items have you just barely scratching the surface of the barrage of questions that race through your mind when handicapping.

Let's take a look at Race 6 at Aqueduct from January 10, 2009. A MSW $41K going 6F for NY foaled Three Year-olds. I'm posting up four contenders. We have the first, second and third place finishers and one horse who finishes up the track. Read through, make up your own mind...I'll post the results at the end of this post.

Midnight Player - this first time starter has a big name trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin and the benefit of first time lasix. On January 4th, the colt put in a solid work at Belmont in 48.1. One of my favourite things to look for is a near bullet work. Bullet works stand out and everyone notices them, but a near bullet can be just as good an indicator of a sharp and ready horse - and get you a better price. Finally, this firster has the benefit of Rajeeeeeev in the saddle. Everyone at Aqueduct loves Rajeeev including the cab driver who drove me from the track to the airport. The longshot jock is a local legend.



Vinnie Van Go - Here we have a horse that's been knocking on the door, finishing in the money four times in fiver starts. Leading trainer (remember that chart at the beginning?) Gary Contessa conditioning and the hard-luck race note telling us he was bumped at the break of his last outing. Why do I always bet these hard luck horses?


Magical Devotion tied with the one above for the highest Beyer rating in the field. Traditional thinking is that a horse improves off that number next time out. (Except that Vinnie Van Go above has been declining steadily since his big opening number...hmmm.) Still, if Magical Devotion finished ahead of VVG in his opener then why not try him again today?




Slevin is making his third career start and has first time lasix. The 65 Beyer rating puts him in the same class if you believe in Beyer numbers...it's also important to note that Slevin had a bullet work in 1:00.4 on December 26th at Belmont. Looks like a very good stalking choice if Magical Devotion speeds to the lead.



I'll post the results at the bottom of the page. Good luck!

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In other news, recently I wrote about Boule d'Or, a G2 winner in 2008 now competing in low-level claimers at Santa Anita. This galloping eight year old was entered again in Sunday's 5th race going a mile on the near dirt with a tag of $12.5K.

Determined to make a little money on this race for donation to the Long Run Thoroughbred Retirement Society, I handicapped as best I could and made a very modest exactor wager. Boule d'Or was labouring through his most recent victory and I had a feeling he would struggle to win as the even money favourite on this day. With that in mind I boxed Boule d'Or with 5-1 shot Waive Liability and 16-1 bomb Brave Sun. Unfortunately, I picked the wrong bomb and Aaron Gryder stole this race aboard the 22-1 Changing as my three picks chased him home to finish 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The exactor paid a fat $133.60.

Still, why should someone else pay for my poor handicapping. I'm adding another $20 to the cheque I've been procrastinating and sending it out first thing this morning to Long Run with Boule d'Or's name on the memo line. Hopefully some lucky horse gets a few extra carrots on his behalf!


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Race Results From Aqueduct:
1st - Vinnie Van Go
2nd - Magical Devotion
3rd - Midnight Player
6th - Slevin