Thursday, April 23, 2009

Video Review: The Top Ten 2009 Kentucky Derby Contenders

The 2009 Kentucky Derby is fast approaching and after you have read through the FREE Brisnet Past Performances and reviewed the awesome spreadsheet prepared by Equispace, it's important to compare all the facts against actual race replays.

In order of graded earnings, let's review the Top Ten contenders for the 2009 Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings for Major Contenders (through 04/20/09)


Rank Horse / Trainer / Graded Earnings
1 Regal Ransom bin Suroor, Saeed $1,250,000
Regal Ransom staked his claim to this year's Derby by knocking off stablemate Desert Party in the UAE Derby. Under a cool ride from jockey Alan Garcia, Regal Ransom relaxed on the lead and then pulled away through the stretch as a flat Desert Party struggled to find his run.


2 Pioneerof the Nile Baffert, Bob $1,193,250
The question that will be answered on the First Saturday In May is whether or not the Baffert horse is a synthetic specialist. What cannot be denied is that the horse simply gets results. Most impressive in his run up to the Derby was a win in the Robert Lewis defeating top contenders I Want Revenge and Papa Clem.


3 Square Eddie O'Neill, Doug $804,981
Coming off a third place finish in the Lexington Stakes, Square Eddie will enter the Derby with minimal rest. The Canadian bred has trained well in his return from injury and let's not forget that Square Eddie defeated Pioneerof The Nile in the Lane's End Futurity at Keeneland last year. This is a very good horse.


4 I Want Revenge Mullins, Jeff $774,000
More like, I want off the fake dirt. Since taking this horse to New York, trainer Jeff Mullins has found a winning formula on the dirt and hopefully not in the detention centre. Check out the brilliant ride by Twitterin' Joe Talamo expertly relaxing the horse after a poor start and saving ground in the early going. As the horses turn for home, I Want Revenge accelerates down the lane and through the wire. Impressive stuff.


5 Papa Clem Stute, Gary $760,000
Here is another one that left behind the California synthetic to escape Pioneerof The Nile and find some dirt. After finishing a distant second to Friesan Fire in the slop at the Louisiana Derby, Papa Clem came back with a barnstorming performance in the Arkansas Derby to defeat Old Fashioned. Trying to handicap against Pioneerof The Nile after watching the success of Papa Clem and I Want Revenge on the dirt is becoming increasingly difficult.


6 Desert Party bin Suroor, Saeed $641,667
The UAE Derby was supposed to be the coming out party for this one. Instead it poked all sorts of holes through the form of the Godolphin purchase. Desert Party looked good last year easily defeating Vineyard Haven in the Sanford on a wet surface. However, the recent flat performance in the UAE Derby has me wondering how he will handle the mile and a quarter at Churchill.


7 Quality Road Jerkens, James $600,000
Fully recovered from his quarter crack injury, Quality Road has done little wrong in his short career winning three of four races and dusting media darling Dunkirk in the Florida Derby. If they let him get away on the front end, it could be lights out. I'm hoping that Regal Ransom and Quality Road will bang heads and set things up for a stalker.


8 General Quarters McCarthy, Tom $595,645
The feel good story of this year's Derby is the former $20K claimer who rejuvenated his career in the care of former high school principal Tom McCarthy. After putting up successive 100 speed ratings at TAM, General Quarters misfired in the Tampa Bay Derby finishing fifth to Musket Man. The horse redeemed himself in the Bluegrass with a stunning pre-race appearance before blazing to victory over Hold Me Back.


9 Friesan Fire Jones, J. Larry $570,465
Almost forgotten after a seven week layoff, Friesan Fire has been working regulalry for trainer Larry Jones. Having competed in five graded races in his seven race career, there is no doubt this is a class horse. Friesan Fire goes into the Derby with three consecutive graded wins with increasing speed ratings of 97, 100 and 103. Lest we forget, here is video of Friesan Fire dominating Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby last time out.


10 Musket Man Ryan, Derek $485,000
Winner of five of six lifetime races with the lone defeat coming against General Quarters. Musket Man avenged that defeat in the Tampa Bay Derby and then posted a nasty 104 speed rating in winning the Illinois Derby. The workout line is riddled with bullets and this Musket Man could be firing come Derby day.


There you have it, your top ten contenders for the 2009 Kentucky Derby. If you put a musket to my head, I'd be forced to pick Friesan Fire as this year's winner. However, I will want to see more of the workouts this week at Churchill and the pre-race appearance before staking my name to an official horse. I'm looking forward to Twittering my last minute selections on Derby Day!

1 comment:

Gene Kershner said...

Keith,

Appreciate the compilation of videos, I will definitely be stopping back here.

Thanks for the link and kind words too!