Queen's Plate Preview: A Horse-by-Horse Review of the 150th Gallop For The Guineas

Sunday will mark the 150th running of the Queen's Plate which will see thirteen horses, featuring a wide variety of credentials, load into the gate to contest the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown.

In the Plate Trial, Eye of the Leopard headed Southdale at wire into a prevailing wind. (Look at the flags in full-stretch for an idea of just how strong the wind was that day.) Rapid Release sits third with Active Duty fourth along the rail. Note the fast closing Keino West up for fifth.


I am tied in fourth position, with 712 points, in the Media Division of the Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge with John Siscos of Woodbine's Media Department. The current leader is Toronto Sun columnist Rob Longley with 805 points.

Active on the equine side in the Triple Dead Heat entry are stable star Active Duty along with El Brujo, Keino West and Flip for the Coin. My only active jockey is Patrick Husbands who has the mount on Tasty Temptation. My second choice jockey Justin Stein was unfortunately bumped from his mount on Mr. Foricos Two U for Mike Smith, while Daniel David, my third selection, has not factored in the run up to the Queen's Plate. My selections in the trainer portion of this pool are looking very good with Mark Casse having two entrants in Active Duty and the filly Tasty Temptation. Steve Attard sends out lovable long shot Keino West and my third choice conditioner, Jim Day, is not represented.

Milwaukee Appeal Wins The Woodbine Oaks over Tasty Temptation. Note that the flags in this photo are blowing a strong wind down the stretch. Will the weather be a factor on Sunday?


There is a small chance I can catch Longley. We share all of the same horses, with the exception that Longley has one additional horse with Bucephalus. However, Longley's stable star Square Eddie will not be a factor on Sunday. We share Mark Casse's pool points, but I have an additional trainer in Steve Attard. Should the contest end in a draw, the tie-breaker will feature a head-to-head handicapping competition between myself and Longley.*

*That's not really in the rules, but I feel that's how it should be handled. Truth be told, should either of El Brujo or Eye of the Leopard score on Sunday then the Toronto Star's Jennifer Morrison, stalking from third position, is the likely pool winner.

It's been an interesting challenge trying to handicap the Queen's Plate before the majority of the horses had even run a single race as a three year-old but I'm happy with my current position.

And now it's time to preview Sunday's field, in order of post position, with the benefit of hindsight that is the past performance chart.

Queen's Plate - Woodbine Racetrack - Race 9

PP/HORSE/OWNER/TRAINER/JOCKEY/EARNINGS/ODDS

1/El Brujo/Windways Farm/Malcolm Pierce/Emma-Jayne Wilson/$389,610/15-1

El Brujo steamed into the Plate Trial off a run of consecutive Stakes scores in the Achievement and Queenston only to go completely off the rails finishing ninth, beaten some 7 3/4 lengths, at odds of 8-5. El Brujo's game has been to sit on or close to the lead and then surge to the front, however on the day of the Trial the connections decided to try and rate the gelding who fought jockey Patrick Husbands the length of the race. At the post-position draw, Mr. Begg of Windways Farms described the events of the Plate Trial as follows, "We had great instructions in the paddock. It sounded great, it was a genius plan and when the gate opened it went bad from there. We made a poor decision on how we wanted that race to unfold for him. I think we'll let him run his race this time." The honest and good-natured response earned a laugh at the event, but the connections are being a bit harsh on themselves. If ever there was a time to experiment with running styles, then surely it's in the prep race and not the race itself. With Husbands switching to Tasty Tempation in the Plate, Emma-Jayne Wilson is reunited with El Brujo and we will see the son of Candy Ride back in his familiar spot on the lead.

So now the question remains - Can El Brujo lead for a mile and a quarter?

It does not seem likely. The horse has not won a race longer than seven furlongs and was beaten in the 1 1/8M Corontation Futurity last November by Active Duty. However, Wilson has had great success with this horse never finishing out of the money in six starts and the jockey is a great competitor already credited with a fantastic Plate-winning performance aboard Mike Fox.

It is likely that the pace will set up with Reservoir and Shut It Down on the front, with El Brujo and the filly Milwaukee Appeal stalking from up close. I'll be wagering on one of the closers benefiting from the potential of this pace.

2/Flip for the Coin/Molinaro Stable/Vito Armata/Emile Ramsammy/$65,069/30-1
Do not be fooled into thinking Flip for the Coin is a front runner based on a third place finish last time out when the gelding yielded late in the stretch. This horse is a closer. "The horse usually comes from behind, but the jock (Emile Ramsammy) had him on the lead," explained trainer Vito Armata. "He doesn't want to be there. The jock said he rode a bad race."
Flip for the Coin broke his maiden last October closing to win a $67K MSW at a mile and seventy yards and has finished top four or better in all five lifetime starts.
Armata won the Queen's Plate in 2002 with T.J's Lucky Moon and jockey Ramsammy, who has a chance to redeem that last effort, has won the Plate twice with Victor Cooley and Edenwold.
It would be a surprise to see this one hit the board, but that's what everyone said about 82-1 shot TJs Lucky Moon.

3/Active Duty/Woodford Racing/Mark Casse/Corey Fraser/$210,260/20-1
This stalker is hoping to take advantage of a hot pace on Sunday and swoop to the lead in the stretch, just as he did last November when overtaking El Brujo to win the Coronation Futurity. Since that score Active Duty travelled to Sanata Anita for a pair of unsuccessful routes before returning to finish third to El Brujo in the Queenston. In the Plate Trial, Corey Fraser sat in perfect position behind a front-running Southdale but Active Duty failed to gain in the stretch as Eye of the Leopard leaped by for the win. "I don't think the 1 1/4 miles will be a problem for him - although I was a little disappointed that he didn't finish a little better in the Plate Trial," offers trainer Mark Casse. "He kind of stalled from the eighth pole to the wire. Maybe he was having a bad day." With El Brujo promising to speed things up, I expect we'll see the best of Active Duty on Sunday.

4/Milwaukee Appeal (f)/C.E.C. Farms/Scott Fairlie/Stewart Elliott/$649,538/3-1
The big money earner of the field with over $600K in the bank. Scott Fairlie sends the filly back to the track just two weeks after a fantastic win in the Woodbine Oaks. Milwaukee Appeal earned a massive 99 speed rating in the Oaks, eight points better than her previous figure in the La Lorgnette. Only El Brujo and the other filly, Tasty Tempation, have put up a +90 Beyer so this daughter of Milwaukee Brew is good value as the 3-1 morning line favourite. Kentucky Derby winning jockey Stewart Elliott is back to ride the filly.
Trainer Scott Fairlie agonized over whether or not to enter the filly and was asked at the post-position draw why he decided to enter the Plate. "The million dollars was a big part of it," stated Fairlie. "The main thing was the filly. I wanted to make sure she was 100% and that was the biggest concern." This horse is here for the right reasons and is a deserving favourite. Fillies have won the Plate on 33 occasions so do not be shy about the gender.

5/Mr. Foricos Two U/Annecchini & D'Alimonte/Catherine Day Phillips/Mike Smith/$93,060/15-1
With two wins in four career starts, this son of Porto Foricos is another long shot possibility offering good value at 15-1. In his three starts in 2009, "Mr", has put up increasing Beyer figures of 77, 80 and 84 and boasts a two-race winning streak with the most recent victory a two-turn event. Mike Smith has been brought in to ride the gelding and trainer Catherine Day-Phillips believes the horse has hidden class noting a Sam-Son Farm connection. "I found that he is out of a Dauphin Fabuleux mare and the second dam is by Vice Regent," informed Day-Phillips. At one time, the conditioner regularly galloped Sam-Son Farm horses for her father, trainer Jim Day, so she knows of which she speaks.
I'm high on this geldings last race in which he was checked, encountered traffic, and still rushed home a going-away winner. Respect.

6/Reservoir/Goldie Stables and Weila Ye/Julia Carey/Jim McAleney/$70,680/20-1
Jim McAleney gets the mount on this son of Sky Classic who recently put up an 82 Beyer winning a 1 1/8M turf race. With only two lifetime starts, there's not much form to look at but trainer Julia Carey advised at the post-position draw that Reservoir will be forwardly placed. The gelding did not race as a two year-old and was scratched out of a $50K claiming race on April 25th. When the horse finally did break from the gate, he broke his maiden in a quick 7F polytrack event. Reservoir will race for the hat-trick on Sunday against much tougher competition than he has ever faced. If the horse has the talent, McAleney will get the job done.
This mystery horse is going to factor into my exotics, though I think he'll be better suited for the third leg of this Triple Crown run.

7/Eye Of The Leopard/Sam-Son Farm/Mark Frostad/Eurico Rosa da Silva/$135,540/7-2
This is the likely favourite when the wagering is complete on Sunday. This big colt is impeccably bred, sired by A.P Indy and his dam is 2004 Oaks winner Eye of the Sphynx. Proven pedigree, proven winner at an extended route and a trainer/owner who was won this event many times over. The colt is on a two-race win streak and in his last start beat the would-be Plate favourite Southdale in the Plate Trial. (Southdale came out of the race with a suspected shoulder injury.) Most impressive about that last tilt is that Eye of the Leopard closed with a fierce run against a slow pace into a strong wind.(See photos above.)
It's going to take a lot to beat this colt. My top choice.

8/Rapid Release/Dolantori Racing/Roger Attfield/Jono Jones/$41,588/8-1
Roger Attfield has won the Queen's Plate eight times. If Attfield entered his cat in the Queen's Plate I'd likely put a couple bucks on it just in case. Fortunately, Attfield has arrived with a major contender in the form of 8-1 Rapid Release. The son of Action This Day has eleven races under his belt, including seven starts in the UK as a two year-old. Since arriving at Woodbine in April, the colt has started three times posting Beyer figures of 77, 80 and 81 and was a closing third last time out in the Plate Trial. Attfield and jockey Jono Jones teamed up to win this race last year with Not Bourbon.
My concern with this horse is the margin notes from the Form that state the following:
Apr26: "In range, no rally."
May 3: "Rail to 4W, no rally."
May31: "Rail to 5W, evn'd out."
I'd really prefer to see a horse eating up some lengths late in the race and because of Sunday's increased distance I'm looking elsewhere.

9/Bucephalus/Knob Hill Stable/Kevin Attard/Tyler Pizarro/$133,600/30-1
Bucepahalus got off to a hot start at Woodbine winning the 5 1/2F Clarendon Stakes in his second career start. Since then, the colt has been an enigma never getting closer than six lengths to a winner in four starts. Still, the son of Cape Canaveral is a big, talented horse and has the benefit of hot jockey Tyler Pizarro in the irons on Sunday. I expect the slow pace did not help Bucephalus in the Plate Trial and believe he could be a factor on the back end of exotic tickets on Sunday.

10/Stardust Ziggy/UN Stable/Lorna Perkins/Jerry Baird/$34,557/20-1
The Holy Bull colt ran a superb race last out as the undercard to the Plate Trial narrowly missing an incredible win when charging from eleventh (14 lengths back at the half) to miss by a nose. The race was run just 3/5ths of a second slower than the Plate Trial which indicates the horse is well on pace with the rest of the Plate field. Stardust Ziggy is still a maiden, but others have made the Plate their first win including one of my personal favourites, Golden Choice. Owned by UN Stable (Milton couple Anthony Coombes and Diane Murphy), the pair originally wanted to name the horse Ziggy Stardust, after the David Bowie album, but the name was already taken. Stardust Ziggy has gone through a few equipment ch-ch-ch-changes recently to avoid a problem with laying in. "We tried a cage bit and now we've gone to a ring bit," said trainer Lorna Perkins. "That seems to be best. With a cage bit, we don't have quite as much control of his speed. The ring bit really helps with the control of speed and direction." Jockey Jerry Baird will look to steer this colt to the stars on Sunday at odds of 20-1. I'll be adding this one to the exactor puzzle.

11/Tasty Temptation (f)/Woodford Racing/Mark Casse/Patrick Husbands/$190,905/4-1
This filly had a rough outing in the Woodbine Oaks missing the start and was forced to make her run from ten lengths back. Jockey Patrick Husbands got the filly up to the leader, and eventual winner, Milwaukee Appeal in the stretch but faded late to finish second, just three lengths back. In Tasty Temptation's previous outing, the La Lorgnette Stakes, the filly raced from 16 lengths off the pace at the half to finish second, beaten half a length, to G1 winner Hooh Why - it should be noted that Milwaukee Appeal was third in this race, three lengths behind the winner. A daughter of hot sire Medaglia d'Oro, the gray filly has improved in each of her eight lifetime starts and has a lifetime high Beyer number of 94. With a better trip this filly should be in the money at the end. It's difficult to ignore the successful partnership of Mark Casse and Patrick Husbands.

12/Shut It Down/K.K. Sangara/Lorne Richards/Russell Baze/$193,985/20-1
Another son of Porto Foricos, Shut It Down has the second best Beyer number (84) of all the colts and will have the benefit of import jockey Russel Baze. Two starts ago in the Queenston, Shut It Down led for much of the 7F event before yielding late to a strong El Brujo. It was the gelding's first race of 2009 and an impressive one. Next out, Shut It Down was boxed in and never really got a chance to run as the connections experimented with a stalking trip.
I expect we'll see El Brujo and Shut It Down throw it down at the front end of this event. With McAleney opting elsewhere - don't be fooled, Jimmy Mac chose Reservoir - I'll take that as a sign that Shut It Down's best race may be coming a little later this summer.

13/Keino West/Track West Racing/Steve Attard/Gerry Olguin/$69,720/15-1
Keino West was featured in Friday's blog post as a long shot possibility for the Plate. The son of Kissin Kris broke his maiden in impressive fashion driving from last to first in a 1 1/16M race making up 11 lengths to win by a nose. Jockey Gerry Olguin has been aboard for all but one of the gelding's seven lifetime starts and will be looking for his first Plate win. This will be Keino West's fourth start since a restful winter, and is a point that trainer Steve Attard sees as potential for improvement after a fifth place finish in the Plate Trial. "(Keino West) never went to Florida for winter, so we were behind the eight ball," stated Attard. "Every horse in the Plate Trial was winter trained somewhere, my horse wasn't. But I think he's peaking at the right time."
Keino West has been keeping the right company of late but at 15-1, the value play seems to lie in some of the unknown commodities likely to be well above 20-1 at the call to post.

SELECTIONS

1. Eye of the Leopard
2. Stardust Ziggy
3. Tasty Temptation
4. Reservoir
5. Keino West

This all hinges on quick opening fractions and the deluge of closers finding room to romp in the stretch run. Eye of the Leopard has the breeding, the connections and an extra week of rest over the favoured fillies. Stardust Ziggy has shown impressive closing ability and appears to be peaking at the right time. Tasty Temptation has had nothing but bad racing luck and will be racing just two weeks following a tough Oaks outing. Reservoir has excellent breeding and is likely a turf star in the making, however I respect Jimmy Mac's call to ride this horse over Shut It Down.

For those of you that might be wondering about the health of Southdale, the star of my Path To The Queen's Plate Diary, I can report that the big colt is on stall rest back at trainer Ian Black's stable in King City. I recently visited with Black, Ass't Trainer Jeff Bowen and Southie's groom Aline who hope they will see Southdale back at Woodbine later in the season. It was difficult to write this Queen's Plate preview knowing that the horse I like best will not be able to run but I'm looking forward to seeing Southdale reach his full potential on his eventual return. It should be noted that on my recent trip to Churchill Downs, a horse named Successful Dan won his third race in a row to capture the Northern Dancer Stakes. Southdale was a closing third to Successful Dan in his first start at Keeneland and this recent result would surely have been looked at as a measure of class going into the Plate.

Best of luck to everyone with their Queen's Plate selections. On Sunday, I will look to post a brief look at the inaugural Woodbine Turbo Charged Pick Six.