Woodbine Win & You're In: Handicapping Saturday's Natalma and Summer Stakes

TGIF weekend warriors. The Breeders' Cup Win and You're In series descends on Woodbine this weekend where the turf will be firm, firm, firm as it hasn't rained in the Greater Toronto Area since August 30th. Yes, I'm aware that's about as prudent as announcing the pitcher is throwing a no-hitter in the seventh inning, but it's just the way it is.

Firm turf combined with a lot of high-class speed horses shipping in for the races could lead to some track records. (See yesterday's post for field listings. )

With perfect conditions for racing (firm turf, cool weather), I'll take a shot at handicapping Saturday's two Win & You're In events.

Field for the Natalma Stakes - 1M, E.P. Taylor Turf Course
1 Gitchee Goomie (NY)J R Leparoux 119 L Rice 7/2
2 Biofuel (KY) E R Da Silva 119 R Baker 10/1
3 Ernfold (ON) J McAleney 119 R Baker 8/1
4 Jungle Tale (FL)L Contreras 119 S M Asmussen 10/1
5 Show Me the Ring (ON)R A Dos Ramos 119 W Tharrenos 12/1
6 Elusive Galaxy (IRE) R Bejarano 119 G M Lyons 4/1
7 Mingun Miss (KY) M Moore 119 N Gonzalez 12/1
8 Redverse (KY) Jones 119 J Carroll 12/1
9 Bay to Bay (FL) D Clark 119 B A Lynch 5/2


1 Gitchee Goomie (NY)J R Leparoux 119 L Rice 7/2
The gloriously named Gitchee Goomie arrives from New York for Saratoga's leading trainer Linda Rice. The daughter of City Zip debuted successfully at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf at the Spa. I was in attendance that day and can vouch that the horse was in a bad way early but figured it out late to win convincingly. Julien Leparoux takes over for Alan Garcia who stays at Belmont to ride Rutherienne (Nobel Damsel Stakes) and Worstcasescenario (Matron.) Others in here have raced faster fractions, but a win is a win. In the super.

2 Biofuel (KY) E R Da Silva 119 R Baker 10/1
Ignored at 42-1 last out in the Ontario Damsel, the daughter of Stormin Fever got up for fourth, just four lengths back of multiple Stakes winner FrannyFreud. The Reade Baker trainee debuts on the turf and will have Eurico Rosa da Silva in the irons. (Jim McAleney has chosen the other Baker entrant.) A recent bullet work of 1:00.40 tips this one as ready, but the lack of turf breeding and added distance leaves this one looking in tough.

3 Ernfold (ON) J McAleney 119 R Baker 8/1
Jimmy Mac chose to ride Ernfold in this event and there's certainly a lot of talent here. Beaten a nose first time out in a speedy sprint, Ernfold came back to win as the favourite going a mile and seventy yards. Her sire, Stormy Atlantic, is the stallion who provides us with the favourite in the Summer Stakes - Stormy Lord. Plenty of room for improvement here. I like the 8-1 odds and McAleney is quietly having another excellent campaign.

4 Jungle Tale (FL)L Contreras 119 S M Asmussen 10/1
Luis Contreras is another unheralded Woodbine jock doing a great job for the Asmussen barn. Contreras has 44 wins in just 223 starts. Jungle Tale clearly likes the Woodbine turf beaten a nose in her first turf try in a quick 1:09.40 before winning last out at seven furlongs. If there's a good early pace, Jungle Wave could be swinging through the trees from the back of the pack. Truth be told, the pace picture here is very muddled due to a lack of Form for most entrants.

5 Show Me the Ring (ON)R A Dos Ramos 119 W Tharrenos 12/1
SMTR won the Natalma prep impressively making up for a slow break and then cruising to the lead to win by a neck. The time was slow but the horse (and jock Richard Dos Ramos) dealt well with adversity. A win here would make three in a row. 12-1 odds seem about right.

6 Elusive Galaxy (IRE) R Bejarano 119 G M Lyons 4/1
Impressive shipper from Ireland broke her maiden at first asking at Leopardstown and recently finished third, beaten just two lengths, in a G2 seven furlong turf effort. The daughter of Elusive City adds first time lasix and drops five pounds for her North American debut. Rafael Bejerano picks up the mount. Tough ask for a young horse, but she certainly shows talent. Must include.

7 Mingun Miss (KY) M Moore 119 N Gonzalez 12/1
Nick Gonzalez trainee chased home Show Me The Ring in the Natalma prep. The times of her six furlong efforts on the poly look a fair bit slower than those posted by both Biofuel and Ernfold. Still, a decent first out turf effort and these young horses all have infinite room for growth. It would be a bit of a surprise.

8 Redverse (KY) Jones 119 J Carroll 12/1
Trainer Josie Carroll has had a fantastic campaign and her turf runners are in the money at a 59.3% clip. Jono Jones has the reputation of being a top turf jock at Woodbine and Redverse enters the race off a bullet work on the poly in 59.60. With three starts under her belt, Redverse has confusing Form. Off slow first out, the daughter of Menifee finished well back. Second start resulted in a quick 5 1/2 furlong win in 1:04.40. Last out, she disappointed with a one-paced effort in the Ontario Damsel. If the surface switch improves and Redverse runs to her excellent workout line, this 12-1 shot might mess up a few triactors.

9 Bay to Bay (FL) D Clark 119 B A Lynch 5/2
Brain Lynch says Bay to Bay is the best two year-old in his barn. Check out the breeding - Sire: Sligo Bay ( Sadler's Wells); Dam: Bala (With Approval.) Bay to Bay tried turf in her first career effort and walked out of the gate lurking 12 lengths back early. Jockey David Clark rallied the big filly up for third in that race with quick fractions of 22.60, 45, 56.60 and 1:09. Next out going seven furlongs on the poly, Bay to Bay started well and took the lead at the top of the stretch racing home an easy winner. My top choice.

Picks (and no, I haven't been drinking.):
1. Bay to Bay
2. Ernfold
3. Elusive Galaxy
4. Redverse

For the bottom of your superfecta: Gitchee Goomie and Biofuel.

Field for the Summer Stakes, 1M on the E.P Taylor Turf Course
1 Ruhtro (ON) C Fraser 122 M E Casse 4/1
2 Korvette Kid (KY) J McAleney 122 D J Vella 6/1
3 Personal Signal (KY)T Kabel 122 M O'Sullivan 20/1
4 Mobil Unit (ON) T Pizarro 122 M Keogh 12/1
5 Benestar (KY) P Husbands 122 D J Vella 12/1
6 Yesnabay (KY) A Smith 122 L Rivelli 8/1
7 Stormy Lord (ON) J Stein 122 I Black 5/2
8 Fantastico Roberto (IRE) C P DeCarlo 122 T A Pletcher 8/1
9 Becky's Kitten (KY) J R Leparoux 122 W A Ward 10/1
10 Bridgetown (FL) R C Landry 122 K G McPeek 10/1

1 Ruhtro (ON) C Fraser 122 M E Casse 4/1
Corey Fraser is on a hot streak picking up quality mounts for the Mark Casse barn. Fraser is a good turf jock in the money 39.5% of the time and has a live horse in Ruhtro. Inside post helps and this closer will enjoy trying to track down the field which has plenty of early pace. Last out Ruhtro was beaten by Stormy Lord in the prep for the Summer Stakes.

2 Korvette Kid (KY) J McAleney 122 D J Vella 6/1
Ruhtro broke his maiden going 6F on the turf in 1:10.20. Korvette Kid broke his maiden first out at 6F on the turf in 1:09.60. The son of Lemon Drop Kid has plenty of turf breeding and trainer Danny Vella is a respected turf conditioner. Korvette Kid worked a scintallating 5F in 58.80 on the turf September 6th. Jim McAleney is charged with harnessing the speed. Interesting.

3 Personal Signal (KY)T Kabel 122 M O'Sullivan 20/1
Todd Kabel appears to have chosen this one over a seemingly better Mobil Unit. The latter horse soundly defeated Personal Signal on August 3rd in a turf sprint. A recent route was a much better effort finishing third. Still a maiden, this is a tough race to get it started. Turf breeding is there (Sire: Mizzen Mast - Cozzene)but I'm looking elsewhere.

4 Mobil Unit (ON) T Pizarro 122 M Keogh 12/1
Tyler Pizarro takes over on Mobil Unit who sees his fourth different rider in what will be his fifth start. This one spent his first three efforts tackling local monster Whos Big Daddy always managing to stay within three lengths. Last out, Mobil Unit finally got away from that one and easily beat a field of maidens in a 6F turf sprint. The time of that race was 1:09.60...which is faster than what Ruhtro put up under the same conditions that same day. With a string of impressive works, 12-1 is looking very generous.

5 Benestar (KY) P Husbands 122 D J Vella 12/1
Danny Vella sends out Benestar for owner Alvin Wong. After failing to hold first out against Ruhtro in the above mentioned 6F sprint, Benestar came back with a big effort Aug 28th to finish third beaten less than a length after stumbling at the start and encountering traffic trouble. Leading rider Patrick Husbands (53% in the money on turf) retains the mount. Another 12-1 shot looking very lively.

6 Yesnabay (KY) A Smith 122 L Rivelli 8/1
Brit-shipper adds lasix and drops from carrying 129lbs to 122lbs for this event. "Missed break" in both starts overseas and there's two much speed in here to make that mistake again. The son of Grand Slam has plenty to do to win here. Barring a sparkling pre-race appearance, this one is on the fringes at best.

7 Stormy Lord (ON) J Stein 122 I Black 5/2
Woodbine's equine Rodney Dangerfield gets no respect. In three starts, Stormy Lord has never been less than 10-1, winning twice, but now appears as the 5-2 morning-line favourite. Last out, the son of Stormy Atlantic was an easy winner of the Summer Stakes prep and a Sep 13 workout of 47.60 on the poly suggests this one is sharp and ready. Justin Stein retains the mount.

8 Fantastico Roberto (IRE) C P DeCarlo 122 T A Pletcher 8/1
Chirs De Carlo gets the mount on Irish-bred, Italian invader Fantastico Roberto. This one dominated in Italy before arrving at Arlington Park under new owners Team Valor International to finish third in the Spectacular Bid on poly. The winner of that event, Dixie Band, recently continued his perfect record winning the G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity. Fantastico Roberto adds Lasix and gets back onto the the turf where he is undefeated.

9 Becky's Kitten (KY) J R Leparoux 122 W A Ward 10/1
Wesley Ward sends out Becky's Kitten for a second consecutive turf start. Last out, this cat clawed out a neck win at Saratoga under Leparoux who is here for this event. Turf breeding throughout on this one who had a good polytrack work in 1:00.40 on September 14th. Before that last win, BK had three lacklustre starts. Hard to tell what this one really has in the tank, but the switch to turf certainly helped.

10 Bridgetown (FL) R C Landry 122 K G McPeek 10/1
Bridgetown finished second first time out at Churchill Downs on June 27th and immediately went back on the shelf. The son of Speightstown showed up at Saratoga on August 14th and rocketed through fractions of 21.60, 44.80, 56 to win a 5 1/2 furlong turf sprint in 1:02. The second place finisher in that event, Billions Boy, broke his maiden next out on the turf. Bridgetown has put up faster fractions than all others here, though it remains to be seen if it will carry over a mile. Rob Landry takes over for Robbie Albarado.

Picks:
1. Fantastico Roberto
2. Korvette Kid
3. Stormy Lord
4. Bridgetown
For the bottom of your superfecta: Benestar, Mobil Unit, Becky's Kitten