Polycapping - Will Woodbine Provide Breeders' Cup Winners?

With so much discussion online regarding synthetic surfaces and "polycapping" the Breeders' Cup - the latest wrench in the works is post position.

A great article by Bill Finley over at ESPN advises:

"It may be too early to tell, but it appears that inside posts are not the place to be. Horses breaking from Post 1 are 2-for-44 so far in sprints at Santa Anita. Horses breaking from Post 2 are also 2-for-44. Post 1 is showing a respectable 4-for-24 record on routes, but Post 2 is 0-for-24. Combined, Posts 1 and 2 have accounted for only 4.4% of the winners so far at Santa Anita."

In what might be the greatest "psych yourself out" handicapping event of all time, the Breeders' Cup experts are finding more and more ways to not pick a winner.

In considering all the usual issues (post position, speed bias, workouts, etc), the key thing to focus on in handicapping this year's championship will be identifying horses who have worked on, or have previous form on a synthetic surface. Any horse who has not had a race or work on synthetic will have to be considered a wild card, which will make for expensive exotic tickets.

Curlin's big workout over the weekend of five furlongs in 59.12 on the Pro-Ride surface puts a big gold star next to his name.



Casino Drive won a hard fought allowance race on Sunday at Oak Tree and should be sharp for the Classic. A win is a win, but I was not overwhelmed by the result. Casino Drive will face far better horses on the day of the Classic. Still, considering this is his first race in months after a long journey from Japan, some leeway can be given.


One track that can provide horses with proven form on synthetics is my home track - Woodbine. Woodbine linked horses shipping to BCC synthetic races include Bear Now (Ladies Classic), Fatal Bullet (Sprint), Van Lear Rose (Juvenile Fillies)and possibly Southern Exchange (Juvenile). Jeremy Plonk touched briefly on Canadian entries here.

Reade Baker , a top Woodbine trainer, pulls the strings for both Fatal Bullet and Bear Now. Fatal Bullet has an impressive record of seven wins in eight races on the near dirt while Bear Now has notched wins at Woodbine this season in the Ontario Matron and Hill n Dale, while impressively proving her class in September's Kentucky Cup Distaff.

Van Lear Rose was impressive in winning the G3 Mazarine Stakes at Woodbine and must be considered a factor in the Juvenile Fillies for this experience.

Exchange Rate's two year old progeny have been devastating on the polytrack at Woodbine this season. C Karma, entered in the Juvenile Filly Turf, Southern Exchange and Juliet's Spirit have all shown explosive form winning Woodbine stakes races. However, it is unclear at this point if either of Southern Exchange or Juliet's Spirit will be heading to California. Juliet's Spirit worked five furlongs in 1:03.40 at Churchill Downs on Monday and Southern Exchange's trainer Greg De Gannes remains hopeful that his colt will be given a chance in the Juvenile.

The picture will be much clearer when pre-entries are confirmed this afternoon.

***
Triple Dead Heat is undergoing cosmetic surgery having added a third display column and two new widgets - a Breeders' Cup Video feed in the right margin - as well as a - Raceday 360 feed at the bottom of the page. A few more changes are on the way as I learn more about HTML.